Paper: West Africa could see 4,400 new Ebola cases in September
Sept. 22, 2014 9:57 a.m.
A new paper in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks by SFI External Professor Carlos Castillo-Chavez and co-authors examines the complex dynamics of the 2014 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa.
To model the rapid evolution of both the virus and the efforts to contain it, the researchers applied time-series analysis and other statistical methods to World Health Organization data for Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. They found that in Liberia and Guinea, the transmission rate accelerated when military-enforced quarantines were imposed. This finding calls into question the effectiveness of enforced quarantines, which gather sick and healthy persons together in unsanitary conditions.
The researchers also predict that the last half of September will see 4,400 new Ebola cases in West Africa if the current transmission rates continue. http://www.santafe.edu/news/item/ebola-control-complex-adaptive-system/