In
a study published by the "New England Journal of Medicine", the World
Health Organization (WHO) warned on September 23 that over 20,000 people
will be infected with Ebola virus in early November if the control
measures the epidemic are not reinforced in West Africa.
"Assuming there is no change in measures of controlling the epidemic", there will be 9,939 cases in Liberia, Guinea in 5925 and 5063 in Sierra Leone, experts say the WHO.
"Without a drastic improvement measures", there will be in the coming months, not "hundreds" of cases and deaths each week, but "thousands" they added, noting that the fatality rate of people with virus stands at 70.8%. If nothing is done, Ebola likely to settle in the area for many years and become "endemic", according to experts.
Last week, the UN said 20,000 people rely on infected end of 2014 but the rate of exponential growth of the epidemic has worsened the forecast Scientists Call for More "quick" control measures, especially at funerals and to enhance early detection of cases.
Towards a "catastrophe" if nothing changes
"We are in a third phase of growth of the epidemic" that is "explosive," said Dr. Christopher Dye, one of the co-authors of the study and director of strategy at WHO, during a press conference in Geneva.
"If we do not stop the epidemic quickly, it will not be a disaster but a disaster," he said, adding that if the situation remains the same, Ebola could reach "hundreds of thousands" in the coming months.
He stressed that this epidemic, the worst in the history of this hemorrhagic fever identified in 1976, is "quite similar" to other epidemics have affected other African countries in recent years, such as the DRC and Sudan. "What is different, it is not the characteristics of the virus, but the nature of the affected people," he argued, pointing in particular as a factor in the contamination highly mobile populations.
The rapid transmission rate is also due to the slow response to Ebola
early in the epidemic that the poor state of the health systems of the
three main affected countries, he has acknowledged.
"In Nigeria, where the health system is stronger, the number of cases has been limited to date," said Christl Donnelly, a professor at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.
Dr. Christopher Dye also explained that it was difficult for the moment to take stock of the epidemic, since it appears to be stabilizing in some areas but has appeared in other districts that were spared far.
The experts also noted that the virus does not seem to know of mutation that could facilitate its spread by air, but Christopher Dye said it was "possible that this type of change can happen." https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jeuneafrique.com%2FArticle%2FJA2802p014.xml0%2Fsante-oms-virus-epidemie-sante-ebola-chronique-d-une-panique.html&edit-text=
"Assuming there is no change in measures of controlling the epidemic", there will be 9,939 cases in Liberia, Guinea in 5925 and 5063 in Sierra Leone, experts say the WHO.
"Without a drastic improvement measures", there will be in the coming months, not "hundreds" of cases and deaths each week, but "thousands" they added, noting that the fatality rate of people with virus stands at 70.8%. If nothing is done, Ebola likely to settle in the area for many years and become "endemic", according to experts.
Last week, the UN said 20,000 people rely on infected end of 2014 but the rate of exponential growth of the epidemic has worsened the forecast Scientists Call for More "quick" control measures, especially at funerals and to enhance early detection of cases.
Towards a "catastrophe" if nothing changes
"We are in a third phase of growth of the epidemic" that is "explosive," said Dr. Christopher Dye, one of the co-authors of the study and director of strategy at WHO, during a press conference in Geneva.
"If we do not stop the epidemic quickly, it will not be a disaster but a disaster," he said, adding that if the situation remains the same, Ebola could reach "hundreds of thousands" in the coming months.
He stressed that this epidemic, the worst in the history of this hemorrhagic fever identified in 1976, is "quite similar" to other epidemics have affected other African countries in recent years, such as the DRC and Sudan. "What is different, it is not the characteristics of the virus, but the nature of the affected people," he argued, pointing in particular as a factor in the contamination highly mobile populations.
>> Access our interactive map of 40 years of Ebola outbreaks in Africa by clicking on the video below:
"In Nigeria, where the health system is stronger, the number of cases has been limited to date," said Christl Donnelly, a professor at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.
Dr. Christopher Dye also explained that it was difficult for the moment to take stock of the epidemic, since it appears to be stabilizing in some areas but has appeared in other districts that were spared far.
The experts also noted that the virus does not seem to know of mutation that could facilitate its spread by air, but Christopher Dye said it was "possible that this type of change can happen." https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jeuneafrique.com%2FArticle%2FJA2802p014.xml0%2Fsante-oms-virus-epidemie-sante-ebola-chronique-d-une-panique.html&edit-text=
