An Ominous Ebola Forecast
The
World Health Organization warned on Thursday that the Ebola epidemic in
West Africa, already the largest outbreak ever recorded, is going to
get much worse over the next six months, the shortest window in which it
might conceivably be brought under control. By then, the organization said, the virus could infect more than 20,000 people, almost seven times the current number of reported cases.
It
is a frightening prospect that requires an urgent infusion of aid from
public and private donors around the world. The situation as described
by the health agency is so dire and the resources needed so daunting
that it is hard to see how they can be supplied anytime soon.
The
agency issued a road map listing tasks that must be carried out by
countries with Ebola cases, nearby countries, the international
community and nongovernmental organizations if the epidemic is to be
contained.
A
top official said the road map would require at least 750 international
and 12,000 local health workers on the front lines delivering care. How
can impoverished countries whose health workers are falling ill and
dying or fleeing in fear possibly supply that many caregivers? If they
cannot muster those workers, it seems inevitable that wealthier nations
will need to step in with more personnel, but they, too, may have
difficulty recruiting people.
The
World Health Organization is belatedly catching up to a warning issued
in June by Doctors Without Borders, a group that has been delivering
care in some of the hardest hit areas, that said the epidemic was out of
control. On Thursday, the health agency said that the reported death
toll had risen to 1,552, from 3,069 cases of infection in four West
African countries — Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria — and
that the actual toll could be up to four times higher because many cases
go undetected or unreported. That suggests there could already be up to
12,000 cases.
A
top American official on the scene in West Africa said the situation is
far worse than anticipated and raised concerns that, with each passing
day, the virus might spread to additional countries. More than 40
percent of the total number of reported cases have occurred in the past
three weeks. Most of those cases are concentrated in a few localities,
offering hope that the outbreaks can be contained if more resources are
sent to those places.
The
road map could cost almost h... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/29/opinion/an-ominous-ebola-forecast.html?_r=1