The coronavirus conundrum: when to press the panic button
We have become very good at detecting risk, but it's impossible to know if this latest virus will be another Sars or disappear
Never mind that there have been a total of just three confirmed cases in the UK and 11 worldwide, half those infected have died and, as there is no vaccine, health officials are "worried". They are worried not least because we have been here before: in 2003, to be precise, when severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), also caused by a coronavirus, suddenly emerged from Guangdong, China, sparking an epidemic that resulted in 1,000 deaths worldwide and grounded planes from Hong Kong to Toronto.
On that occasion, civet cats – a popular delicacy in Chinese animal markets – were to blame; this time the animal reservoir is thought to be bats. But the truth is that no one knows for certain, least of all the scientists whose job it is to keep tabs on new pathogens and alert us to the threat before they can be reprimanded for not speaking up sooner.
And that's the dilemma: press the panic button too early and you risk being labelled a wolf-crier. Do it too often and when a real wolf comes along – albeit in the guise of a bird, cat or bat – no one will believe you.
For all the current fuss about the coronavirus, the pathogen that still keeps most scientists awake at night is H5N1 bird flu, a virus that first emerged in Hong Kong around the..
